Coastal Real Estate and Lifestyles

Between January 24th and 31st, there has been a flurry of activity on the Coastside.  These numbers include Half Moon  Bay, El Granada, Moss Beach, Montara and Pacifica.

22 new listings - 3 are at $1.2 Million and above, all in Half Moon Bay.

9 price reductions - there are some good values here; one of the best is 414 Sevilla in Lower El Granada

7 pending (continue to show or no show)

5 contingent (meaning Pending Release; another offer may be able to obtain first position over the first offer).   It won’t show as “active” because an offer has been accepted but worth looking into if it turns out to be a desirable property for you.

3 transactions fell through (TFT) - not unusual in this lending environment.  All 3 are in Pacifica.

About half are under $600K and have are over $600K (the over $600K group is between asking prices of $799K and $1,099K).  This is a good sign.

It’s a beautiful day to cruise open houses….it’s sunny and clear.  I’ll be holding 365 Coronado, Half Moon Bay CA open today from 2pm to 4 pm.  This one is a short sale listing, listed by Margot Lockwood, Coldwell Banker Woodside.

No time for chocolate (my market morsel picture) today, but there will be fresh made oatmeal-butterscotch cookies at 365 Coronado that I made this morning.  Stop by to say hi and bring a cookie home to someone special.

There were 9 transactions in Nov 2009 - the month with the most transactions during this period.

There were 7 transactions in Nov 2008.

The month with the lowest # of transactions was Dec 2008 (1).  Dec 08 and Jan 08 were REALLY slow.  I’ll share what this year looked like soon.

The month with the highest median sale price was December 2008 - $1,150,000.  Well, it was just one sale!  The month with the lowest median sale price was January 2009 - $432,000 (3 sales).  Not a lot to go on, but this is what it was.

The median price for listed properties is down 6% - from $1,084,000 to $1,017,000.

The median price of sold properties is down 32% - from $1,025,000 to $699,000.

The number of properties going into contract is trending up over the last 12 months –

• 0 in November 08
• 5 in December 08
• 2 in January 09
• 2 in February 09
• 5 in March 09
• 7 in April 09
• 5 in May 09
• 5 in June 09
• 8 in July 09
• 9 in August 09
• 9 in September 09
• 9 in October 09
• 8 in November 09

The number of NEW PROPERTIES LISTED by month trended up until July 2009 and then began trending down.  The month with the largest inventory was July 09.  Eight new listings came on the market 11/09 compared to 2 new listings on the market in 11/08.

Months Supply of Inventory peaked in the first quarter of 2009 with about 41 months of inventory!  Tons of inventory but not a lot of buying going on (why?  financial meltdown).  It’s been trending down ever since with November 2009 at 7 months.  This is still not a balanced market, which for our area is more in the 4-5 month range, but definitely improving!  Also, Half Moon Bay sales prices from November 2008 to November 2009 were down about 35% - that is for all price points/neighborhoods and single family homes only (not including lots, condo/townhouses or multi-family properties).

Annual and other stat reports to come, this is just to give you an idea of the kind of numbers we’re talking about in Half Moon Bay over “roughly” the last year (11/08-11/09).  As you will see from my past stat posts if you read them, I will discuss specific towns, or the Coastside as a whole, or compare it to other areas or time periods.  To look for Statistic posts specifically, go to the Quick Search button on the right sidebar and put in “stats or statistics”.  Or if you want the full 21 page report from which these numbers were generated (the San Mateo County Multiple Listing Service - MLS - MarketMetrics), just email me at mb@mariansbennett.com.

Hope you enjoy the mocha, my favorite drink :)  Happy New Year.

This has been an good year for these two Pacifica neighborhoods.  This chart shows two things 1) Average and Median sales prices on the left axis.  I wanted to show you both so you can see that they’re pretty consistent.  Note there are 2 lines for these unless they overlap.  This means there probably weren’t any properties that sold out of range (an outlier) for the area, which is one possible reason for differing numbers.  2)  Inventory (the number of properties for sale) on the right axis.  Note how different the numbers were a year ago compared to now.  Those of us working in the Park Pacifica and Sun Valley neighborhoods have been aware of this for months.  Below the graph are some key points.

This is a different market from a year ago.  I wrote about these neighborhoods in April 2009, titled Pacifica Buyers Find Value.    “Except for 2 sales in February 2009, there have been no closed sales since September 2008.”

The dip in January 2009 means that there were no closed sales that month.

Inventory peaked in late Winter and again in late Summer, a little earlier than more typical Spring and Fall inventory bumps.  In Nov 2008 there were 13 single family homes for sale and 1 sale (13 months of inventory); last month there were 4 homes for sale and 2 sales (2 months of inventory.  In the last 3 months, the absorption rate has been between 2-3 months!

The Median Sale Price broke the $600K mark in the Spring of 2009 and has sustained.  The Median  Sales Price in Nov 08 was $475,000; Median Sales Price in Nov 09 was $663,000.  Who knows if this approximately 28% increase will last in 2010 but it’s a welcome upturn for sellers who have seen a downturn since the peak in Quarter 1 of 2005 when the average sale price in these neighborhoods was $1,033,838.  At that time the Median sale price was $812,500, which is probably the more accurate range if we look at the trends.

Average Days on Market at the peak was 34; average days on market over 6 months is 58; average days on market over the last 3 months is 35.  This is with only one bank-owned (REO) property in the mix (1166 Fassler, originally listed for $513K, reduced to $498K 30 days later, accepted offer 10 days later, closed on 12/20/09 for $523K.)  I mention this because distressed properties can wreak havoc with days on market averages, but not for this market right now.

Potential sellers in Park Pacifica and Sun Valley - get a Comparative Market Analysis if you’re thinking about selling but wanted to wait for the market to stabilize.  There have been enough sales to satisfy appraisal concerns and price intelligently.

Potential buyers considering Park Pacifica and/or Sun Valley - have your financing in place BEFORE you make your offer.  Listing Agents may contact your mortgage broker or lender if there will be some financing.   Also, there are still cash buyers in the market.  Work with a Realtor who can guide you through a strategy that will insure you end up with the right house for you.

Search Pacifica properties or get listing alerts.

Search Pacifica properties in the $400K-$700K range or get listing alerts.

Related Article:Comparing Sun Valley and Park Pacifica - 3/31/2009

The Coastside continues to have a low count of distressed properties in the past 12 months.  This post will only be discussing short sales.  Eight have sold in the last 12 months.  Eight short sale listings have either expired, canceled or withdrawn within the same time period.  Here are the 8 sold:

I left off the days on market for the above list because I don’t think it’s an accurate indicator of how long a distressed property is truly available.

This is what the status is on the current short sale offerings.  There are currently 4 active short sales - 3 single family homes and one townhouse/condo:

1010 Date - 83 days on market.  MLS shows this being on the market in 98-99, 04-05, then 5/09at $1,050,000; 9/09 at $949,000, and it ’s now at $749,950.  Currently listed by Joy Terrell, Keller Williams.

1558 Mizzen - 32 days on market.  MLS shows this being on the market in 1/08 at $725,000; then 11/09 at $639,000.  It is now at $599,000.  Currently listed by Cresencia Orozco, Ameriland Real Estate.

443 Correas - 5 days on market.  MLS shows this being on the market in 9/08 at $640,000; now in 12/09 at $549,000.  Currently listed by Maria Schuster, Prudential California Realty.

72 Patrick - 16 days on market.  MLS shows this being on the market in 9/07 for $829,000, now listed 11/09 for $599,000.  Currently listed by Robert Downes, Alain Pinel.

We continue to watch the trends.  Between Half Moon Bay, El Granada, Moss Beach and Montara, there are currently 55 Notices of Default, 27 Notices of Trustee’s Sale, and 31 foreclosures (3 in Half Moon Bay, 3 in Montara, 1 in El Granada, 1 in Moss Beach).

The government’s plan to stem foreclosures, the Make Home Affordable Plan, is not producing the number of refinances and modifications that were originally expected so far.  Recently, the government introduced a “mortgage modification conversion” program to try and finalize those who are still in the trial period.  I’m torn between thinking the government is really mucking up the waters here and wondering how bad it would have been if they didn’t step in when they did.  I guess I’ll just have to continue to live with my conflicted feelings.

A year ago inventory was plentiful.  Things are a little more settled down for now; however,  pricing and presentation are still very key factors.

This chart is from our office’s internal Market Trends report (data is taken directly from the Multiple Listing - MLS) comparing current inventory to new listings in Ocean Colony between October 2008 and October 2009:

Available listings in Ocean Colony on 11/20/2008 - 22

Available listings in Ocean Colony on 11/20/2009 -  9

There have been 14 closed sales from October 2008 to October 2009 broken down as such -

Attached homes - 2 (both bank-owned, REO)

The lowest sale price during this time period was on Pinehurst Lane.  The REO sale on 10/14/09 for $541,900 was 38% lower than the original asking price on 11/7/2008 ($869,900).  The last sale price in Feb 2004 was $715,000.

Detached homes - 12 (1 short sale; 1 lease option)

The highest sale price during this time period was on Ashdown Place.  The sale on 10/6/08 of $1,924,000 is less than 2% off the asking price of $1,949,000 on 9/26/08.

Spyglass homes - no sales during this time period

I did not look at Ocean Corners condos for this post.

There have been 12 single family home listings that have not sold during the same time frame - that means that they’ve either cancelled, withdrawn or expired.  Sometimes the seller takes the property off the market for various reasons (for example - refinance, visitors, short term rental, exhaustion). 

A brief six month look - May to Oct 09:  The highest sale in the last six months was $1,625,000 on Cypress Point Rd. among 7 of the 14 sales.  Four homes came off the market. 

In my opinion, this neighborhood - like many others - has been soft for the past year and continues to be soft for now.  I think the number of new listings coming on the market will remain low until next February or March 2010.  Since last year was such a turbulent year, the Coastside’s spring selling season of 08 didn’t start until later in the Spring, but my feeling is that it may start sooner this coming year, more in line with a normal pattern.  I could be completely off, but this is what my gut is telling me.

Related article:

Ocean Colony Facts, Figures & Trends - August 14, 2008

Pending Show - ratified contract with contingencies
Pending - ratified contract with contingencies removed
Pending with Release - a 48-72 hour release of contract clause for performance, for example, when the buyer has a home to sell making the contract contingent on the property selling.

39 total pending statuses
11 are pending
24 are pending show
4 are pending release

Other data tidbits:

50% sold after 100 days on the market

The area with the most pendings currently is lower El Granada (MLS area 620)

5 should have closed by now based on the Close of Escrow Date in the MLS

13 are due to close in August

14 are due to close in September

2 are due to close in October

1 is due to close in November

List price points selling:

• $2 Million + - 1
• $1-2 Million -8
• $900K’s - 0
• $800K’s - 4
• $700K’s - 5
• $600K’s - 8
• $500K’s - 6
• $400K’s - 3
• $300K’s - 2
• under $200K - 2

Noteworthy - the Million dollar buyers are coming back into the market.  A well-priced/presented/located home in the $500K-$600K range is selling very quickly.  Still lots of inventory for the time being; currently coming down a little (129 single family homes for sale compared to 158 just a few weeks ago).

My opinion - There are very well qualified buyers now in the market.  They are writing offers with strong down payments and pre-approvals.  Some are all cash buyers.  They are being selective and they are savvy.

My apologies for not writing more frequently these days…been extremely busy writing offers, working for my sellers, and being there for my youngest who graduated from Half Moon Bay High School this June, who is now getting ready to head off to Cal Poly in San Luis Obispo.  I have so much to share, it’s just going to take me a little while to get it onto the blog.

This is for single family homes only, for the entire central Coastside - Half Moon Bay, El Granada, Moss Beach and Montara.  It does not include Pacifica or Pescadero.

I’m only showing closed sales instead of pendings (sales under contract).  Buyers are out there writing offers, the Realtors are busier than ever, it’s just harder to close transactions.  The going may be tough right now, but the tough are going strong!  Trust me, the people involved in this year’s sales to date celebrated getting theirs accomplished.  I suspect many, if not most involved in those deals felt like it was one of the hardest things they’ve done in a while, but worth it in the end (kinda like planning a big wedding?)…  Congratulations if you were one of them.

Related recent Coastside Market Activity articles:

Half Moon Bay Inventory Higher This Year

Coastside New Listings vs Sold Listings Trend

Pacifica sellers were rewarded with lots of buyer activity last month.  Do we call it the spring bump?  pent up demand? first time home buyer tax credits?  feeling that we’ve hit a bottom here? or all of the above…

Accepted offers jumped 41% in March from the prior month.

Of ALL pending listings, not just new March pendings:

• 6 are Pending Release - average list price $417,000 - 83% are short sale or REO

• 14 are Pending Show - average list price $615,000 - 28% are short sale or REO

• 20 are Pending - average list price $497,000 - 70% are short sale or REO

I’ve noticed that short sale listings will change status immediately to any of the 3 statuses.  Therefore, I wouldn’t call this a turn-around in the market, even a short term one, with over 50% (23 out of 40) pendings identified here as either short sale or bank-owned (REO).

Market activity does appear to be increasing in Pacifica, even if it is too soon to call it a “trend” this spring season.  However…we are quite pleased to notice that March 2009 had the most accepted offers within in the last year.  March had 29 accepted offers with an inventory of 73 single family homes.  A year ago in March 2008, there were 20 accepted offers with an inventory of 97 single family homes.

One reason for continued uncertainty is the short sale process.  An accepted offer (accepted by the homeowner/seller) is usually needed to open a file at the bank in the loss mitigation department.  The listing agent may list the property for a low price in order to generate an offer; then while it sits in one of the pending statuses in the MLS, the listing agent is working to keep that offer viable.

We’ll be watching to see if most of these accepted offers close escrow during their scheduled dates of mostly April and May.

These two neighborhoods are in the south-east portion of Pacifica.  Some of the streets in these neighborhoods offer beautiful views, either ocean, canyon, or bridge (the new one at the Devil’s Slide Tunnel).  Park Pacifica neighborhood, also known as “the back of the valley” is one of the warmer areas of Pacifica and the San Mateo County coast.

This shows MLS (San Mateo County) statistics for the months from February 2008 to February 2009, inventory at that time, closed sales during that month, average continuous days on market, and the average sale price, or the sale price of the property if there was only one closing.

Sun Valley/Linda Mar/Pacifica CA market activity:  Except for 2 sales in February, there have been no closed sales since September 2008.  Average sale price in February 2009 was $580,000 with 4 months of inventory.

Park Pacifica/Linda Mar/Pacifica, CA market activity:  The last closed sale was in December 2008.  There is no “average” since there has only been one or no sales per month since July 2008.  Eleven months of inventory.

As of this writing there are 3 “pending show”, and 2 “pending” in these neighborhoods according to the MLS under areas #652 for Sun Valley and #653 for Park Pacifica.  One of the “pending” properties is a short sale that as of a couple days ago was not yet approved by the bank as a short sale but is expected to be approved within a few days.  This shows that the market is moving again.

 In the area you will find:

 Sanchez Adobe Park - on the National Register of Historic Sites

 Frontierland Park - a great place for a family or playgroup outing.

 Sanchez Art Center - a non-profit organization devoted to creating community through art.

 San Pedro Valley Park - terrific hiking and walking trails.

 More about PACIFICA here.

Half Moon Bay’s 94019 zip code has a greater inventory of homes on the market than a year ago.

The chart below shows Half Moon Bay’s zip code 94019 historical listing data for inventory trends.  This Altos Research chart shows inventory of single family homes and condos from 2005 to now.

This chart shows that we’re in our spring inventory dip - even though inventory is at an all time high.

In the last two weeks, the Half Moon Bay coastside has seen 17 new listings.  Of that 17, 1 is now in pending, and 1 has already had a price reduction.  The pending sale was a re-list that was first listed in October 2008 for $620K; this most recent “new” listing of the same property is now an REO (bank owned) property listed for $400K and sold in 2 days.

In the last two weeks, Pacifica has also seen 17 new listings.  Of that 17, 1 is now in pending.  This pending is also a re-list.  It was listed for $620K in June 2008 and has steadily come down in price with the last list price when it went into contract at $389K.

We won’t know either of the sale prices until after the close of escrow.