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Sales and Price Trends over 7 years
Published October 5th, 2008 in Sellers, Buyers, Market Activity. by Marian Bennett, Coldwell Banker Tags: average, Coastside home value trends, median, sales price trends.This mini graph of data I selectively pulled together from MLSListings.com statistics summarizes sales activity and sales price trends for Half Moon Bay, El Granada, Moss Beach and Montara, combined, for 2002 through 2008 using data from the month of August. The last percentage number uses the average (not median) sales price to determine the increase or decrease in market value from the starting year (on the left side) to the current year, August 2008.
For example, Coastside home values showed an average sales price of $731,812 in August 2003; the average sales price in August 2008 is $906,908. Therefore, the difference +/- between those years, not year-over-year, is a 23.9% increase in value.
This is just another way to look at the numbers to give a different perspective on our community’s home values over the last several years. For active buyers and sellers, it is important to get the hyper-local numbers for your town, neighborhood, street, including the most likely comparables from a real estate professional.
As a reminder the difference between median and average sales prices:
Median Sales Price: The midpoint between the most expensive house and the least expensive house sold in an area during a specific time; an equal number of properties sold above the midpoint as the number of properties sold below the midpoint. The Median Sales Price is often used as an indicator of the strength and the direction of the real estate market. This number can be misleading in a market with very few sales during a specific time period; one month there may be more higher priced homes that sell compared to the next month.
Average Sales Price: Take the total number of properties you are looking at and add up the sales prices to get a total. Once you have that number you divide by the number of properties and you have the average sales price for that particular search. This calculation averages out all price points in all price ranges in an area during a specific time. If more higher priced or lower priced homes are selling during that time period, it will be reflected in the average sales price.
More Half Moon Bay-Pacifica coastside market activity statistics to come, so check back or subscribe to these posts.
6 Responses to “Sales and Price Trends over 7 years”
- 1 Pingback on Jan 12th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Unfortunately with such a low number of sales, neither median or average prices mean much. Yes, there are some people that are still willing to buy at these crazy prices, but there are less and less of them. I have no doubt, that for sales to get back to over 20 houses per month, prices need to come down at least 30% from what the same houses were selling for in 2005. Until real estate professionals realize this and communicate it to the sellers by not taking listings that are grossly overpriced, their commission volume will continue to decline.
You make several points here. First, as stated in the post, this is another way to look at the numbers, not the only way. It is meant to keep my readers in the loop regarding trends for my market. Second, as for people willing to buy at these prices, some people want to live in San Mateo County, and the Coastside specifically. Some homes and properties may only come available only once or once in a great while. We are a unique community - or perhaps you are a local and already know that. Cash buyers are a force in the market now. Not all buyers are waiting for the bottom. Wisely they know that identification of the bottom means they have already missed it. Also they’re buying a home not an investment such as stock in a company. Third, I can’t speak for all real estate professionals, but we are bound by our fiduciary duty to represent our clients in their best interest; however, they are the principals and make the final decision on list price. We recommend and guide. Of course, we don’t have to take a listing either. Finally, as for the final sales price, buyers determine the market, not Realtors. Also, most Realtors I know don’t run their businesses based on the amount of commission they will earn, but I suppose like many industries, there are bad apples out there. Fortunately, most of those types are retiring their licenses. Thanks for commenting.
More homebuyers are once again thinking of their home as shelter/haven, rather than an investment.
Marian,
I am glad that you publishing and analyzing the price information. I believe it’s a good way to communicate what the market is doing.
To answer some of your points.
There are many unique communities in California and many of them are still overpriced just like this one. Everyone believes that their community is going to be immune from the current global crash, but they are mistaken. The current crash is a result from a twenty year expansion of credit, and this contraction will last a while.
All I am saying is that for the normal transaction market to return, prices will need to adjust significantly. Sellers are currently in denial as many homes are still listed over 2005 prices. It is a job of a real estate professional to communicate to the sellers how far to take down prices to actually generate bids.
As far as the cash buyers go, after the last couple of weeks in the markets, there are going to be a lot fewer of them from now on.
News,
I guess you and I will both be watching the markets. I agree with you that this is an important time for education from one’s team of professionals as the global issues unfold. I am consulting with future sellers, and even people who aren’t planning to sell now but want to understand how the bigger issues facing our country affect our own towns.
Julie,
I’m seeing that change in the approach to the purchase also, especially as more people are getting into fixed loans.